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Tusker vs Muhoroni Youth — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
9/23/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 4Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tusker43%
×Draw33%
Muhoroni Youth24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.05
Muhoroni Youth
0.71

Tusker creates 48% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Muhoroni Youth
0.71

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Muhoroni Youth
0.82

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Muhoroni Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
76%
Tusker or Muhoroni Youth
67%
Draw or Muhoroni Youth
57%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
17%
Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
65%
Tusker 2+ goals
28%
Tusker 3+ goals
9%
Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
51%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
16%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
64%
Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tusker scores more
43%
level
33%
Muhoroni Youth scores more
24%

Tusker at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tusker vs Muhoroni Youth

Tusker beat Muhoroni Youth 1-0 in FKF Premier League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.