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Muhoroni Youth vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tusker
Tusker
3/2/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 21Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muhoroni Youth25%
×Draw29%
Tusker46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muhoroni Youth
0.85
Tusker
1.26

Tusker creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 147 away

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth
0.71
Tusker
1.34

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth
1.18
Tusker
1.00

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw
54%
Muhoroni Youth or Tusker
71%
Draw or Tusker
75%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
8%
Tusker wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
57%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
21%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
5%
Tusker 1+ goals
72%
Tusker 2+ goals
36%
Tusker 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
35%
Tusker (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Tusker defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Tusker attack 1.34 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more
25%
level
29%
Tusker scores more
46%

Tusker at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Muhoroni Youth 1–2 Tusker

Tusker beat Muhoroni Youth 2-1 in FKF Premier League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Muhoroni Stadium in Muhoroni.