Tusker 2–0 Kisumu All Stars: Result & Stats

Tusker

FT

2 – 0

Kisumu All Stars

T. Otieno 49'

J. Macharia 18'

1/8/2020

FKF Premier League · Round 17Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tusker70%

×Draw19%

Kisumu All Stars11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuskerExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.64

Tusker

2.05

Kisumu All Stars

0.64

Tusker creates 220% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 11 away

1.29

creates per match

0.55

0.72

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Tusker

1.29

Kisumu All Stars

0.55

allows per match

Tusker

0.72

Kisumu All Stars

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tusker or draw

89%

Tusker or Kisumu All Stars

81%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

30%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+

45%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals

87%

Tusker 2+ goals

61%

Tusker 3+ goals

33%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

47%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

14%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)

87%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 143 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Kisumu All Stars defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.05

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.55 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Tusker scores more

70%

level

19%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

11%

Tusker at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. Macharia

49'

T. Otieno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff