Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kisumu All Stars vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
2 – 2
Tusker
Tusker
E. Otieno 90+3'
M. Owino 40'
T. Otieno 90'
L. Namanda 43'
2/29/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 23Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kisumu All Stars20%
×Draw26%
Tusker54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
0.82
Tusker
1.53

Tusker creates 87% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 143 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.64
Tusker
1.33

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.73
Tusker
1.01

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
46%
Kisumu All Stars or Tusker
74%
Draw or Tusker
80%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
6%
Tusker wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
56%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
20%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
5%
Tusker 1+ goals
78%
Tusker 2+ goals
45%
Tusker 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
27%
Tusker (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.64 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.82

Tusker attack 1.33 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
20%
level
26%
Tusker scores more
54%

Tusker at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
M. Owino
43'
L. Namanda
90'
T. Otieno
90+3'
E. Otieno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Kisumu All Stars 2–2 Tusker

Kisumu All Stars and Tusker drew 2-2 in FKF Premier League on February 29, 2020.

Goals: M. Owino (40'), L. Namanda (43'), T. Otieno (90'), E. Otieno (90+3').

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.