TuS RW Koblenz 0–1 Eintracht Trier: Result & Stats

TuS RW Koblenz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Eintracht Trier

3/24/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 28Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TuS RW Koblenz30%

×Draw21%

Eintracht Trier49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS RW KoblenzExpected goals in this matchEintracht Trier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.14

TuS RW Koblenz

1.63

Eintracht Trier

2.14

Eintracht Trier creates 31% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

2.17

creates per match

2.71

1.57

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

TuS RW Koblenz

2.17

Eintracht Trier

2.71

allows per match

TuS RW Koblenz

1.57

Eintracht Trier

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS RW Koblenz ↓

Eintracht Trier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

TuS RW Koblenz or draw

51%

TuS RW Koblenz or Eintracht Trier

79%

Draw or Eintracht Trier

70%

Winning margin

TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+

14%

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals

80%

TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals

48%

TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals

22%

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals

88%

Eintracht Trier 2+ goals

63%

Eintracht Trier 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)

38%

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS RW Koblenz at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Eintracht Trier away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS RW Koblenz attack 2.17 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.63

Eintracht Trier attack 2.71 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TuS RW Koblenz scores more

30%

level

21%

Eintracht Trier scores more

49%

Eintracht Trier at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff