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Eintracht Trier vs TuS RW Koblenz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
CANC
17:30
TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
7/14/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eintracht Trier40%
×Draw25%
TuS RW Koblenz36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Trier
1.51
TuS RW Koblenz
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Eintracht Trier
2.36
TuS RW Koblenz
1.67

allows per match

Eintracht Trier
1.18
TuS RW Koblenz
0.67

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par
TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

TuS RW Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw
64%
Eintracht Trier or TuS RW Koblenz
75%
Draw or TuS RW Koblenz
60%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
19%
TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
78%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
44%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
19%
TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
76%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
41%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
53%
TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

TuS RW Koblenz away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 2.36 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

TuS RW Koblenz attack 1.67 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more
40%
level
25%
TuS RW Koblenz scores more
36%

Eintracht Trier at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Trier face TuS RW Koblenz (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Eintracht Trier hosting TuS RW Koblenz. Match starts July 14, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.