TuS Koblenz 4–1 SV Morlautern: Result & Stats

TuS Koblenz

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SV Morlautern

3/29/2025

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 24Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

TuS Koblenz62%

×Draw20%

SV Morlautern18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS KoblenzExpected goals in this matchSV Morlautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.04

TuS Koblenz

2.13

SV Morlautern

1.04

TuS Koblenz creates 105% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 46 away

1.97

creates per match

1.11

0.97

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

TuS Koblenz

1.97

SV Morlautern

1.11

allows per match

TuS Koblenz

0.97

SV Morlautern

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

SV Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

SV Morlautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw

82%

TuS Koblenz or SV Morlautern

80%

Draw or SV Morlautern

38%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+

39%

SV Morlautern wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals

88%

TuS Koblenz 2+ goals

63%

TuS Koblenz 3+ goals

35%

SV Morlautern 1+ goals

65%

SV Morlautern 2+ goals

28%

SV Morlautern 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)

78%

SV Morlautern (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

SV Morlautern away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + SV Morlautern defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.13

SV Morlautern attack 1.11 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more

62%

level

20%

SV Morlautern scores more

18%

TuS Koblenz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff