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SV Morlautern vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

SV Morlautern
SV Morlautern
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
9/14/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 7Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

SV Morlautern30%
×Draw21%
TuS Koblenz49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Morlautern
1.68
TuS Koblenz
2.17

TuS Koblenz creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

SV Morlautern
2.02
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

SV Morlautern
2.48
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

SV Morlautern+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Morlautern ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SV Morlautern or draw
51%
SV Morlautern or TuS Koblenz
79%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
70%

Winning margin

SV Morlautern wins by 2+
15%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

SV Morlautern 1+ goals
81%
SV Morlautern 2+ goals
50%
SV Morlautern 3+ goals
24%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
89%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
64%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

SV Morlautern (draw refunded)
38%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Morlautern at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Morlautern attack 2.02 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.68

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + SV Morlautern defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SV Morlautern scores more
30%
level
21%
TuS Koblenz scores more
49%

TuS Koblenz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Morlautern vs TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat SV Morlautern 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz in Kaiserslautern.