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TuS Koblenz vs Schott Mainz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
10/22/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 13Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

TuS Koblenz30%
×Draw23%
Schott Mainz47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
1.41
Schott Mainz
1.80

Schott Mainz creates 28% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 27 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
1.97
Schott Mainz
2.63

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.97
Schott Mainz
0.85

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Schott Mainz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
53%
TuS Koblenz or Schott Mainz
77%
Draw or Schott Mainz
70%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
14%
Schott Mainz wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
76%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
41%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
17%
Schott Mainz 1+ goals
83%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
54%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
39%
Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + Schott Mainz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.41

Schott Mainz attack 2.63 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
30%
level
23%
Schott Mainz scores more
47%

Schott Mainz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Koblenz vs Schott Mainz

TuS Koblenz and Schott Mainz drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.