Schott Mainz 4–1 TuS Koblenz: Result & Stats

Schott Mainz

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

TuS Koblenz

L. Thum 67', 45+4'

J. Just 57'

J. Roden 11'

N. Tchadjei 26'

3/7/2025

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 21Mz-Mombach BSA KR1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Schott Mainz65%

×Draw18%

TuS Koblenz17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott MainzExpected goals in this matchTuS Koblenz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.26

Schott Mainz

2.55

TuS Koblenz

1.26

Schott Mainz creates 102% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

3.78

creates per match

1.85

0.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Schott Mainz

3.78

TuS Koblenz

1.85

allows per match

Schott Mainz

0.67

TuS Koblenz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

TuS Koblenz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw

83%

Schott Mainz or TuS Koblenz

82%

Draw or TuS Koblenz

35%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+

43%

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals

92%

Schott Mainz 2+ goals

72%

Schott Mainz 3+ goals

46%

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals

72%

TuS Koblenz 2+ goals

36%

TuS Koblenz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)

79%

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 3.78, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 3.78 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.55

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Schott Mainz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Schott Mainz scores more

65%

level

18%

TuS Koblenz scores more

17%

Schott Mainz at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. Roden

26'

N. Tchadjei

45+4'

L. Thum

57'

J. Just

67'

L. Thum

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff