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TuS Koblenz vs SC Idar-Oberstein — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
SC Idar-Oberstein
SC Idar-Oberstein
M. Muller 86'
Y. Yaman 76'
L. Hysenaj 54' (pen)
L. Tuchscherer 44'
A. Mandt 7' (pen)
F. Zimmer 58' (pen)
5/4/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 30Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TuS Koblenz62%
×Draw19%
SC Idar-Oberstein18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
2.27
SC Idar-Oberstein
1.15

TuS Koblenz creates 97% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 34 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
1.97
SC Idar-Oberstein
1.32

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.97
SC Idar-Oberstein
2.56

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
SC Idar-Oberstein+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

SC Idar-Oberstein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
82%
TuS Koblenz or SC Idar-Oberstein
81%
Draw or SC Idar-Oberstein
38%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
40%
SC Idar-Oberstein wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
90%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
66%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
39%
SC Idar-Oberstein 1+ goals
68%
SC Idar-Oberstein 2+ goals
32%
SC Idar-Oberstein 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
77%
SC Idar-Oberstein (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

SC Idar-Oberstein away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + SC Idar-Oberstein defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.27

SC Idar-Oberstein attack 1.32 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
62%
level
19%
SC Idar-Oberstein scores more
18%

TuS Koblenz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. MandtPenalty
44'
L. Tuchscherer
45+3'
F. Botiseriu
45+3'
A. Mandt
54'
L. HysenajPenalty
58'
F. ZimmerPenalty
76'
Y. Yaman
86'
M. Muller

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: TuS Koblenz 5–1 SC Idar-Oberstein

TuS Koblenz beat SC Idar-Oberstein 5-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on May 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Mandt (7' pen), L. Tuchscherer (44'), L. Hysenaj (54' pen), F. Zimmer (58' pen), Y. Yaman (76'), M. Muller (86').

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.