Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SC Idar-Oberstein vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

SC Idar-Oberstein
SC Idar-Oberstein
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
L. Tuchscherer 61'
D. Esmel 54', 39'
10/19/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 13Stadion Im Haag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SC Idar-Oberstein27%
×Draw22%
TuS Koblenz52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Idar-Oberstein
1.39
TuS Koblenz
2.00

TuS Koblenz creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 60 away

creates per match

SC Idar-Oberstein
1.44
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

SC Idar-Oberstein
2.15
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

SC Idar-Oberstein+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Idar-Oberstein ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SC Idar-Oberstein or draw
48%
SC Idar-Oberstein or TuS Koblenz
78%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
73%

Winning margin

SC Idar-Oberstein wins by 2+
12%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SC Idar-Oberstein 1+ goals
75%
SC Idar-Oberstein 2+ goals
40%
SC Idar-Oberstein 3+ goals
16%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
86%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
59%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

SC Idar-Oberstein (draw refunded)
34%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Idar-Oberstein at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.15 · 34 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Idar-Oberstein attack 1.44 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + SC Idar-Oberstein defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SC Idar-Oberstein scores more
27%
level
22%
TuS Koblenz scores more
52%

TuS Koblenz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
D. Esmel
54'
D. Esmel
61'
L. Tuchscherer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Idar-Oberstein vs TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat SC Idar-Oberstein 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 19, 2024.

Goals: D. Esmel (39', 54'), L. Tuchscherer (61').

The match was played at Stadion Im Haag in Idar-Oberstein.