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TuS Koblenz vs Kaiserslautern II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
D. Grgic 67'
I. Blagojevic 53'
L. Hysenaj 46'
L. Tuchscherer 9'
M. Stadel 43'
N. Gibs 31'
11/24/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 18Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

TuS Koblenz40%
×Draw22%
Kaiserslautern II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
1.79
Kaiserslautern II
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 79 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
1.97
Kaiserslautern II
2.51

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.97
Kaiserslautern II
1.61

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Kaiserslautern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
62%
TuS Koblenz or Kaiserslautern II
78%
Draw or Kaiserslautern II
60%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
21%
Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
83%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
53%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
26%
Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
82%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
52%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
51%
Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
40%
level
22%
Kaiserslautern II scores more
38%

TuS Koblenz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
L. Tuchscherer
31'
N. Gibs
43'
M. Stadel
46'
L. Hysenaj
53'
I. Blagojevic
67'
D. Grgic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: TuS Koblenz 4–2 Kaiserslautern II

TuS Koblenz beat Kaiserslautern II 4-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 24, 2024.

Goals: L. Tuchscherer (9'), N. Gibs (31'), M. Stadel (43'), L. Hysenaj (46'), I. Blagojevic (53'), D. Grgic (67').

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.