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Kaiserslautern II vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
D. Kaiser 90+1' (pen)
M. Yeboah 39'
D. Esmel 14' (pen)
8/4/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1Betzenberg Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kaiserslautern II48%
×Draw22%
TuS Koblenz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
1.99
TuS Koblenz
1.53

Kaiserslautern II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
2.64
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.21
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
70%
Kaiserslautern II or TuS Koblenz
78%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
52%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
27%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
86%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
59%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
32%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
78%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
45%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
62%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.99

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
48%
level
22%
TuS Koblenz scores more
30%

Kaiserslautern II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. EsmelPenalty
39'
M. Yeboah
90+1'
D. KaiserPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern II vs TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat Kaiserslautern II 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 4, 2024.

Goals: D. Esmel (14' pen), M. Yeboah (39'), D. Kaiser (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Betzenberg Platz 4 in Kaiserslautern.