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TuS Koblenz vs Emmelshausen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
1 – 1
Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
10/27/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

TuS Koblenz64%
×Draw21%
Emmelshausen15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
1.98
Emmelshausen
0.85

TuS Koblenz creates 133% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
1.97
Emmelshausen
0.73

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.97
Emmelshausen
2.00

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
Emmelshausen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Emmelshausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
85%
TuS Koblenz or Emmelshausen
79%
Draw or Emmelshausen
36%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
39%
Emmelshausen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
86%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
59%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
31%
Emmelshausen 1+ goals
57%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
21%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
81%
Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Emmelshausen away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + Emmelshausen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Emmelshausen attack 0.73 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
64%
level
21%
Emmelshausen scores more
15%

TuS Koblenz at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Koblenz vs Emmelshausen

TuS Koblenz and Emmelshausen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.