Emmelshausen 0–2 TuS Koblenz: Result & Stats

Emmelshausen

FT

0 – 2

TuS Koblenz

8/24/2021

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 3Emmelshausen Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Emmelshausen21%

×Draw21%

TuS Koblenz58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmelshausenExpected goals in this matchTuS Koblenz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.03

Emmelshausen

1.13

TuS Koblenz

2.03

TuS Koblenz creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

0.93

creates per match

1.85

2.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Emmelshausen

0.93

TuS Koblenz

1.85

allows per match

Emmelshausen

2.20

TuS Koblenz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmelshausen+0.00on par

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmelshausen ↓

TuS Koblenz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Emmelshausen or draw

42%

Emmelshausen or TuS Koblenz

79%

Draw or TuS Koblenz

79%

Winning margin

Emmelshausen wins by 2+

8%

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Emmelshausen 1+ goals

68%

Emmelshausen 2+ goals

31%

Emmelshausen 3+ goals

11%

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals

87%

TuS Koblenz 2+ goals

60%

TuS Koblenz 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Emmelshausen (draw refunded)

26%

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmelshausen at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmelshausen attack 0.93 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Emmelshausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Emmelshausen scores more

21%

level

21%

TuS Koblenz scores more

58%

TuS Koblenz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff