Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TuS Koblenz vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
1 – 2
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
11/17/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

TuS Koblenz59%
×Draw21%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
2.06
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.10

TuS Koblenz creates 87% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 43 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
1.97
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.23

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.97
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.14

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
80%
TuS Koblenz or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
79%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
41%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
36%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
87%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
61%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
34%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
67%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
30%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
75%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.06

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
59%
level
21%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
20%

TuS Koblenz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Koblenz vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat TuS Koblenz 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.