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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
10/8/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 11Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim36%
×Draw24%
TuS Koblenz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.46
TuS Koblenz
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
60%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or TuS Koblenz
76%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
64%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
17%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
77%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
43%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
18%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
79%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
46%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
47%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
36%
level
24%
TuS Koblenz scores more
40%

TuS Koblenz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Alemannia Waldalgesheim 0–1 TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.