TuS Kirchberg 1–5 Sv Morlautern: Result & Stats

TuS Kirchberg

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Sv Morlautern

5/21/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 11Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TuS Kirchberg15%

×Draw16%

Sv Morlautern69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS KirchbergExpected goals in this matchSv Morlautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.92

TuS Kirchberg

1.33

Sv Morlautern

2.92

Sv Morlautern creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

2.83

3.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg

1.33

Sv Morlautern

2.83

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg

3.00

Sv Morlautern

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

Sv Morlautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw

31%

TuS Kirchberg or Sv Morlautern

84%

Draw or Sv Morlautern

85%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+

6%

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals

74%

TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals

38%

TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals

15%

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals

94%

Sv Morlautern 2+ goals

78%

Sv Morlautern 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)

18%

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Sv Morlautern away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.33 + Sv Morlautern defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sv Morlautern attack 2.83 + TuS Kirchberg defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more

15%

level

16%

Sv Morlautern scores more

69%

Sv Morlautern at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sv Morlautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff