Sv Morlautern 2–1 TuS Kirchberg: Result & Stats

Sv Morlautern

FT

2 – 1

TuS Kirchberg

4/8/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 5Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sv Morlautern59%

×Draw19%

TuS Kirchberg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sv MorlauternExpected goals in this matchTuS Kirchberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.42

Sv Morlautern

2.42

TuS Kirchberg

1.42

Sv Morlautern creates 70% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.83

creates per match

1.67

1.17

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sv Morlautern

2.83

TuS Kirchberg

1.67

allows per match

Sv Morlautern

1.17

TuS Kirchberg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sv Morlautern ↓

TuS Kirchberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Sv Morlautern or draw

78%

Sv Morlautern or TuS Kirchberg

81%

Draw or TuS Kirchberg

41%

Winning margin

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+

38%

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals

91%

Sv Morlautern 2+ goals

69%

Sv Morlautern 3+ goals

43%

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals

76%

TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals

41%

TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)

73%

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sv Morlautern at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

TuS Kirchberg away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sv Morlautern attack 2.83 + TuS Kirchberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.67 + Sv Morlautern defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sv Morlautern scores more

59%

level

19%

TuS Kirchberg scores more

22%

Sv Morlautern at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sv Morlautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff