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TuS Kirchberg vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
FT
1 – 2
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
9/3/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 6Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

TuS Kirchberg42%
×Draw22%
Mülheim-Kärlich36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Kirchberg
1.89
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.72

TuS Kirchberg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg
1.90
Mülheim-Kärlich
0.83

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg
2.60
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.88

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw
64%
TuS Kirchberg or Mülheim-Kärlich
78%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
58%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
23%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
85%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
56%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
29%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
82%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
51%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
54%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.90 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.89

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.83 + TuS Kirchberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more
42%
level
22%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
36%

TuS Kirchberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TuS Kirchberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: TuS Kirchberg 1–2 Mülheim-Kärlich

Mülheim-Kärlich beat TuS Kirchberg 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Kirchberg Kunstrasen in Hunsrück.