Mülheim-Kärlich 1–2 TuS Kirchberg: Result & Stats

Mülheim-Kärlich

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

TuS Kirchberg

11/18/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Schul- & Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mülheim-Kärlich62%

×Draw19%

TuS Kirchberg19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mülheim-KärlichExpected goals in this matchTuS Kirchberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.31

Mülheim-Kärlich

2.46

TuS Kirchberg

1.31

Mülheim-Kärlich creates 88% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

1.63

creates per match

0.70

1.92

allows per match

3.30

creates per match

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.63

TuS Kirchberg

0.70

allows per match

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.92

TuS Kirchberg

3.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheim-Kärlich ↓

TuS Kirchberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Mülheim-Kärlich or draw

81%

Mülheim-Kärlich or TuS Kirchberg

81%

Draw or TuS Kirchberg

38%

Winning margin

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+

41%

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals

91%

Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals

70%

Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals

44%

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals

73%

TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals

38%

TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)

76%

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheim-Kärlich at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

TuS Kirchberg away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.63 + TuS Kirchberg defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.46

TuS Kirchberg attack 0.70 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more

62%

level

19%

TuS Kirchberg scores more

19%

Mülheim-Kärlich at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mülheim-Kärlich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff