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TuS Kirchberg vs Karbach — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Karbach
Karbach
3/5/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

TuS Kirchberg38%
×Draw21%
Karbach42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Kirchberg
1.98
Karbach
2.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 60 away

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg
1.90
Karbach
1.58

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg
2.60
Karbach
2.07

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par
Karbach+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

Karbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw
58%
TuS Kirchberg or Karbach
79%
Draw or Karbach
62%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
20%
Karbach wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
86%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
59%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
31%
Karbach 1+ goals
88%
Karbach 2+ goals
62%
Karbach 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
47%
Karbach (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Karbach away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.90 + Karbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.98

Karbach attack 1.58 + TuS Kirchberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more
38%
level
21%
Karbach scores more
42%

Karbach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: TuS Kirchberg 2–3 Karbach

Karbach beat TuS Kirchberg 3-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Kirchberg Kunstrasen in Hunsrück.