Karbach 0–1 TuS Kirchberg: Result & Stats

Karbach

FT

0 – 1

TuS Kirchberg

10/8/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 11Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Karbach65%

×Draw18%

TuS Kirchberg17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarbachExpected goals in this matchTuS Kirchberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.23

Karbach

2.54

TuS Kirchberg

1.23

Karbach creates 107% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 10 away

1.79

creates per match

0.70

1.77

allows per match

3.30

creates per match

Karbach

1.79

TuS Kirchberg

0.70

allows per match

Karbach

1.77

TuS Kirchberg

3.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

TuS Kirchberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Karbach or draw

83%

Karbach or TuS Kirchberg

82%

Draw or TuS Kirchberg

35%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+

44%

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals

92%

Karbach 2+ goals

72%

Karbach 3+ goals

46%

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals

71%

TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals

35%

TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)

79%

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

TuS Kirchberg away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + TuS Kirchberg defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.54

TuS Kirchberg attack 0.70 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Karbach scores more

65%

level

18%

TuS Kirchberg scores more

17%

Karbach at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff