TuS Kirchberg 2–1 Elversberg II: Result & Stats

TuS Kirchberg

FT

2 – 1

Elversberg II

4/16/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 6Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TuS Kirchberg32%

×Draw21%

Elversberg II48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS KirchbergExpected goals in this matchElversberg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.17

TuS Kirchberg

1.75

Elversberg II

2.17

Elversberg II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

3.00

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg

1.33

Elversberg II

1.33

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg

3.00

Elversberg II

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Elversberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

Elversberg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw

52%

TuS Kirchberg or Elversberg II

79%

Draw or Elversberg II

68%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+

16%

Elversberg II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals

83%

TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals

52%

TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals

25%

Elversberg II 1+ goals

89%

Elversberg II 2+ goals

64%

Elversberg II 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)

40%

Elversberg II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Elversberg II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.33 + Elversberg II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Elversberg II attack 1.33 + TuS Kirchberg defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more

32%

level

21%

Elversberg II scores more

48%

Elversberg II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elversberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff