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Elversberg II vs TuS Kirchberg — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
5/26/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 12Friedrichsthal Rasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Elversberg II24%
×Draw20%
TuS Kirchberg56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
1.50
TuS Kirchberg
2.33

TuS Kirchberg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.00
TuS Kirchberg
1.67

allows per match

Elversberg II
3.00
TuS Kirchberg
2.00

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

TuS Kirchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
44%
Elversberg II or TuS Kirchberg
80%
Draw or TuS Kirchberg
76%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
11%
TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
78%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
44%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
19%
TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
90%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
67%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
30%
TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

TuS Kirchberg away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.00 + TuS Kirchberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.67 + Elversberg II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Elversberg II scores more
24%
level
20%
TuS Kirchberg scores more
56%

TuS Kirchberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "TuS Kirchberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elversberg II vs TuS Kirchberg

TuS Kirchberg beat Elversberg II 4-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 26, 2023.

The match was played at Friedrichsthal Rasen 2 in Friedrichsthal.