TuS Heiligenkreuz 1–2 Kindberg-Mürzhofen

TuS Heiligenkreuz

FT

1 – 2

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

9/20/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 8Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz53%

×Draw20%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS HeiligenkreuzExpected goals in this matchKindberg-Mürzhofen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.65

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.33

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.65

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 41% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

1.85

creates per match

1.73

1.57

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.85

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.73

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.57

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Kindberg-Mürzhofen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw

73%

TuS Heiligenkreuz or Kindberg-Mürzhofen

80%

Draw or Kindberg-Mürzhofen

47%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

32%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

90%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

67%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

41%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals

81%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals

49%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

66%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 1.73 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

53%

level

20%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more

27%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff