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Kindberg-Mürzhofen vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
4/26/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 23Stadion Kindbergdörfl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen47%
×Draw21%
TuS Heiligenkreuz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
2.08
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.71

Kindberg-Mürzhofen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
2.07
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
1.93
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindberg-Mürzhofen ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or draw
68%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen or TuS Heiligenkreuz
79%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
53%

Winning margin

Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+
27%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals
87%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals
61%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals
34%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
82%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
51%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)
59%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 2.07 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.08

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more
47%
level
21%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
32%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kindberg-Mürzhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Kindberg-Mürzhofen 6–0 TuS Heiligenkreuz

Kindberg-Mürzhofen beat TuS Heiligenkreuz 6-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Kindbergdörfl in Kindberg.