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TuS Haltern vs Preußen Münster II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
CANC
13:30
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
11/8/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 12Stauseekampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TuS Haltern22%
×Draw22%
Preußen Münster II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Haltern
1.13
Preußen Münster II
1.91

Preußen Münster II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 88 away

creates per match

TuS Haltern
0.75
Preußen Münster II
1.72

allows per match

TuS Haltern
2.10
Preußen Münster II
1.51

finishing

TuS Haltern+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Haltern ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

TuS Haltern or draw
45%
TuS Haltern or Preußen Münster II
78%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
78%

Winning margin

TuS Haltern wins by 2+
8%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

TuS Haltern 1+ goals
68%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
31%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
11%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
85%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
57%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
29%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Haltern at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Haltern attack 0.75 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.13

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + TuS Haltern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TuS Haltern scores more
22%
level
22%
Preußen Münster II scores more
55%

Preußen Münster II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TuS Haltern host Preußen Münster II

November 8, 2020: TuS Haltern take on Preußen Münster II in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

TuS Haltern host Preußen Münster II at Stauseekampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.