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Preußen Münster II vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
CANC
17:00
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
4/22/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Preußen Münster II58%
×Draw19%
TuS Haltern23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
2.40
TuS Haltern
1.47

Preußen Münster II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
77%
Preußen Münster II or TuS Haltern
81%
Draw or TuS Haltern
42%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
37%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
91%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
69%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
42%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
77%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
43%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
72%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.40

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
58%
level
19%
TuS Haltern scores more
23%

Preußen Münster II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Preußen Münster II host TuS Haltern

April 22, 2021: Preußen Münster II take on TuS Haltern in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Preußen Münster II host TuS Haltern at Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.