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TuS Haltern vs Paderborn II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
FT
2 – 5
Paderborn II
Paderborn II
10/10/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Stauseekampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TuS Haltern19%
×Draw21%
Paderborn II61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Haltern
1.06
Paderborn II
2.09

Paderborn II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

creates per match

TuS Haltern
0.75
Paderborn II
2.09

allows per match

TuS Haltern
2.10
Paderborn II
1.37

finishing

TuS Haltern+0.00on par
Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Haltern ↓

Paderborn II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TuS Haltern or draw
39%
TuS Haltern or Paderborn II
79%
Draw or Paderborn II
81%

Winning margin

TuS Haltern wins by 2+
7%
Paderborn II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

TuS Haltern 1+ goals
65%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
29%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
9%
Paderborn II 1+ goals
88%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
62%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
23%
Paderborn II (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Haltern at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Haltern attack 0.75 + Paderborn II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Paderborn II attack 2.09 + TuS Haltern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

TuS Haltern scores more
19%
level
21%
Paderborn II scores more
61%

Paderborn II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: TuS Haltern 2–5 Paderborn II

Paderborn II beat TuS Haltern 5-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stauseekampfbahn in Haltern am See.