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Paderborn II vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Paderborn II
Paderborn II
CANC
13:00
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
5/16/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 37Sportpark Breite Bruch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Paderborn II64%
×Draw20%
TuS Haltern17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn II
2.21
TuS Haltern
1.04

Paderborn II creates 113% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

Paderborn II
2.08
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Paderborn II
0.69
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw
83%
Paderborn II or TuS Haltern
80%
Draw or TuS Haltern
36%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+
40%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals
89%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
65%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
38%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
65%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
28%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)
79%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 2.08 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.21

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Paderborn II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Paderborn II scores more
64%
level
20%
TuS Haltern scores more
17%

Paderborn II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paderborn II face TuS Haltern (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Paderborn II hosting TuS Haltern. Match starts May 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Paderborn II host TuS Haltern at Sportpark Breite Bruch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.