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TuS Haltern vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
CANC
13:30
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
1/31/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 18Stauseekampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

TuS Haltern40%
×Draw24%
Hammer SpVg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Haltern
1.61
Hammer SpVg
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

TuS Haltern
0.75
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

TuS Haltern
2.10
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

TuS Haltern+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Haltern ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TuS Haltern or draw
64%
TuS Haltern or Hammer SpVg
76%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
60%

Winning margin

TuS Haltern wins by 2+
20%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

TuS Haltern 1+ goals
80%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
48%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
22%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
78%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
45%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
53%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Haltern at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Haltern attack 0.75 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + TuS Haltern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

TuS Haltern scores more
40%
level
24%
Hammer SpVg scores more
36%

TuS Haltern at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TuS Haltern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TuS Haltern host Hammer SpVg

January 31, 2021: TuS Haltern take on Hammer SpVg in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

TuS Haltern host Hammer SpVg at Stauseekampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.