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Hammer SpVg vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
CANC
13:00
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
5/30/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 3924nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammer SpVg48%
×Draw21%
TuS Haltern31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammer SpVg
2.10
TuS Haltern
1.65

Hammer SpVg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hammer SpVg
1.84
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Hammer SpVg
1.89
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw
69%
Hammer SpVg or TuS Haltern
79%
Draw or TuS Haltern
52%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
28%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
88%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
62%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
35%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
81%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
49%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
61%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.10

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more
48%
level
21%
TuS Haltern scores more
31%

Hammer SpVg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hammer SpVg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hammer SpVg host TuS Haltern

May 30, 2021: Hammer SpVg take on TuS Haltern in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hammer SpVg host TuS Haltern at 24nexx Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.