TuS Haltern vs Eintracht Rheine

TuS Haltern

CANC

13:30

Eintracht Rheine

11/29/2020

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14Stauseekampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TuS Haltern32%

×Draw23%

Eintracht Rheine45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS HalternExpected goals in this matchEintracht Rheine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.82

TuS Haltern

1.49

Eintracht Rheine

1.82

Eintracht Rheine creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 89 away

0.75

creates per match

1.54

2.10

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

TuS Haltern

0.75

Eintracht Rheine

1.54

allows per match

TuS Haltern

2.10

Eintracht Rheine

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Haltern ↓

Eintracht Rheine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

TuS Haltern or draw

55%

TuS Haltern or Eintracht Rheine

77%

Draw or Eintracht Rheine

68%

Winning margin

TuS Haltern wins by 2+

15%

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

TuS Haltern 1+ goals

77%

TuS Haltern 2+ goals

44%

TuS Haltern 3+ goals

19%

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals

84%

Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals

54%

Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)

41%

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Haltern at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Haltern attack 0.75 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.49

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + TuS Haltern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TuS Haltern scores more

32%

level

23%

Eintracht Rheine scores more

45%

Eintracht Rheine at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eintracht Rheine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff