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Eintracht Rheine vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
CANC
13:00
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
5/2/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 35OBI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eintracht Rheine50%
×Draw22%
TuS Haltern28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Rheine
1.90
TuS Haltern
1.37

Eintracht Rheine creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

creates per match

Eintracht Rheine
1.44
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Eintracht Rheine
1.34
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Rheine ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Rheine or draw
72%
Eintracht Rheine or TuS Haltern
78%
Draw or TuS Haltern
50%

Winning margin

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
28%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
85%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
56%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
29%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
75%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
40%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
64%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Rheine at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.44 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.90

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Eintracht Rheine defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eintracht Rheine scores more
50%
level
22%
TuS Haltern scores more
28%

Eintracht Rheine at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eintracht Rheine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Rheine vs TuS Haltern — Match Preview

Eintracht Rheine face TuS Haltern on May 2, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eintracht Rheine host TuS Haltern at OBI-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.