TuS Erndtebruck vs SG Wattenscheid 09

TuS Erndtebruck

CANC

13:30

SG Wattenscheid 09

12/13/2020

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 16Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck33%

×Draw23%

SG Wattenscheid 0945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS ErndtebruckExpected goals in this matchSG Wattenscheid 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.79

TuS Erndtebruck

1.50

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.79

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 70 away

1.50

creates per match

1.76

1.83

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck

1.50

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.76

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck

1.83

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw

55%

TuS Erndtebruck or SG Wattenscheid 09

77%

Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09

67%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+

15%

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals

78%

TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals

44%

TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals

19%

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals

83%

SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals

53%

SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)

42%

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more

33%

level

23%

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more

45%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff