SG Wattenscheid 09 vs TuS Erndtebruck

SG Wattenscheid 09

CANC

13:00

TuS Erndtebruck

5/16/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 37Lohrheidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0959%

×Draw20%

TuS Erndtebruck20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SG Wattenscheid 09Expected goals in this matchTuS Erndtebruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.20

SG Wattenscheid 09

2.18

TuS Erndtebruck

1.20

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 35 away

1.65

creates per match

1.29

1.11

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.65

TuS Erndtebruck

1.29

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.11

TuS Erndtebruck

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw

80%

SG Wattenscheid 09 or TuS Erndtebruck

80%

Draw or TuS Erndtebruck

41%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+

37%

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals

89%

SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals

64%

SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals

37%

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals

70%

TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals

34%

TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)

75%

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.65 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.18

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more

59%

level

20%

TuS Erndtebruck scores more

20%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff