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TuS Erndtebruck vs Preußen Münster II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
CANC
13:00
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
5/9/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 36Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck33%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Preußen Münster II
1.77

Preußen Münster II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 88 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Preußen Münster II
1.72

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
Preußen Münster II
1.51

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
56%
TuS Erndtebruck or Preußen Münster II
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
67%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
15%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
78%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
44%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
19%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
83%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
53%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
43%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
33%
level
23%
Preußen Münster II scores more
44%

Preußen Münster II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuS Erndtebruck face Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with TuS Erndtebruck hosting Preußen Münster II. Match starts May 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TuS Erndtebruck host Preußen Münster II at Pulverwaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.