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Preußen Münster II vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
CANC
13:30
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
12/6/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 15Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Preußen Münster II62%
×Draw18%
TuS Erndtebruck20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
2.58
TuS Erndtebruck
1.42

Preußen Münster II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 35 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
80%
Preußen Münster II or TuS Erndtebruck
82%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
38%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
41%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
92%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
72%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
47%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
76%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
41%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
76%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.58

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
62%
level
18%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
20%

Preußen Münster II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Preußen Münster II host TuS Erndtebruck

December 6, 2020: Preußen Münster II take on TuS Erndtebruck in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Preußen Münster II host TuS Erndtebruck at Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.