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TuS Erndtebruck vs Paderborn II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
CANC
13:00
Paderborn II
Paderborn II
6/6/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 40Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck28%
×Draw22%
Paderborn II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
1.44
Paderborn II
1.96

Paderborn II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Paderborn II
2.09

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
Paderborn II
1.37

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

Paderborn II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
50%
TuS Erndtebruck or Paderborn II
78%
Draw or Paderborn II
72%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
13%
Paderborn II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
76%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
42%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
18%
Paderborn II 1+ goals
86%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
58%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
36%
Paderborn II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + Paderborn II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Paderborn II attack 2.09 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
28%
level
22%
Paderborn II scores more
50%

Paderborn II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuS Erndtebruck face Paderborn II (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with TuS Erndtebruck hosting Paderborn II. Match starts June 6, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TuS Erndtebruck host Paderborn II at Pulverwaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.