Paderborn II 5–0 TuS Erndtebruck: Result & Stats

Paderborn II

FT

5 – 0

TuS Erndtebruck

10/17/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 8Sportpark Breite Bruch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Paderborn II68%

×Draw18%

TuS Erndtebruck14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn IIExpected goals in this matchTuS Erndtebruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.99

Paderborn II

2.40

TuS Erndtebruck

0.99

Paderborn II creates 142% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

2.08

creates per match

1.29

0.69

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Paderborn II

2.08

TuS Erndtebruck

1.29

allows per match

Paderborn II

0.69

TuS Erndtebruck

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw

86%

Paderborn II or TuS Erndtebruck

82%

Draw or TuS Erndtebruck

32%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+

46%

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals

91%

Paderborn II 2+ goals

69%

Paderborn II 3+ goals

42%

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals

63%

TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals

26%

TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)

83%

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 2.08 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.40

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Paderborn II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Paderborn II scores more

68%

level

18%

TuS Erndtebruck scores more

14%

Paderborn II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff