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TuS Erndtebruck vs Kaan-Marienborn — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
CANC
13:30
Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
11/8/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 12Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck22%
×Draw20%
Kaan-Marienborn58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
1.31
Kaan-Marienborn
2.21

Kaan-Marienborn creates 69% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Kaan-Marienborn
2.59

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
Kaan-Marienborn
1.12

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

Kaan-Marienborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
42%
TuS Erndtebruck or Kaan-Marienborn
80%
Draw or Kaan-Marienborn
78%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
9%
Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
73%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
38%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
14%
Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
89%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
65%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
28%
Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Kaan-Marienborn away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kaan-Marienborn attack 2.59 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
22%
level
20%
Kaan-Marienborn scores more
58%

Kaan-Marienborn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuS Erndtebruck face Kaan-Marienborn (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with TuS Erndtebruck hosting Kaan-Marienborn. Match starts November 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TuS Erndtebruck host Kaan-Marienborn at Pulverwaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.