Kaan-Marienborn vs TuS Erndtebruck

Kaan-Marienborn

CANC

17:00

TuS Erndtebruck

4/22/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33Sportplatz Breitenbachtal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaan-Marienborn73%

×Draw15%

TuS Erndtebruck12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaan-MarienbornExpected goals in this matchTuS Erndtebruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.15

Kaan-Marienborn

2.96

TuS Erndtebruck

1.15

Kaan-Marienborn creates 157% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

3.21

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Kaan-Marienborn

3.21

TuS Erndtebruck

1.29

allows per match

Kaan-Marienborn

1.00

TuS Erndtebruck

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaan-Marienborn ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Kaan-Marienborn or draw

88%

Kaan-Marienborn or TuS Erndtebruck

85%

Draw or TuS Erndtebruck

27%

Winning margin

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+

53%

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals

95%

Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals

79%

Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals

55%

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals

68%

TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals

32%

TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)

86%

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaan-Marienborn at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaan-Marienborn attack 3.21 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.96

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kaan-Marienborn scores more

73%

level

15%

TuS Erndtebruck scores more

12%

Kaan-Marienborn at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff