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TuS Erndtebruck vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
CANC
17:00
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
4/1/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 28Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck35%
×Draw23%
Holzwickeder SC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
1.58
Holzwickeder SC
1.77

Holzwickeder SC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 18 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
57%
TuS Erndtebruck or Holzwickeder SC
77%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
65%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
17%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
79%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
47%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
21%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
83%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
53%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
45%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
35%
level
23%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
43%

Holzwickeder SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Holzwickeder SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TuS Erndtebruck host Holzwickeder SC

April 1, 2021: TuS Erndtebruck take on Holzwickeder SC in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

TuS Erndtebruck host Holzwickeder SC at Pulverwaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.