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Holzwickeder SC vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
FT
0 – 6
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
11/14/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 12Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC45%
×Draw21%
TuS Erndtebruck35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holzwickeder SC
2.13
TuS Erndtebruck
1.86

Holzwickeder SC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC
2.44
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw
65%
Holzwickeder SC or TuS Erndtebruck
79%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
55%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
26%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
88%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
63%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
35%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
84%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
55%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
56%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.13

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more
45%
level
21%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
35%

Holzwickeder SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Holzwickeder SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holzwickeder SC vs TuS Erndtebruck

TuS Erndtebruck beat Holzwickeder SC 6-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Montanhydraulik-Stadion in Holzwickede.