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TuS Erndtebruck vs Bövinghausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
4/30/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 30Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck48%
×Draw22%
Bövinghausen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
2.00
Bövinghausen
1.56

TuS Erndtebruck creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 47 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Bövinghausen
1.30

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
Bövinghausen
2.51

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
Bövinghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

Bövinghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
70%
TuS Erndtebruck or Bövinghausen
78%
Draw or Bövinghausen
52%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
27%
Bövinghausen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
86%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
59%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
32%
Bövinghausen 1+ goals
79%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
46%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
61%
Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Bövinghausen away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.51 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + Bövinghausen defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bövinghausen attack 1.30 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
48%
level
22%
Bövinghausen scores more
30%

TuS Erndtebruck at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "TuS Erndtebruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: TuS Erndtebruck 0–6 Bövinghausen

Bövinghausen beat TuS Erndtebruck 6-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Pulverwaldstadion in Erndtebrück.