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Bövinghausen vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
11/6/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 13Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bövinghausen42%
×Draw20%
TuS Erndtebruck38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
2.19
TuS Erndtebruck
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
62%
Bövinghausen or TuS Erndtebruck
80%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
58%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
24%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
89%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
64%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
37%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
87%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
61%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
53%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
42%
level
20%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
38%

Bövinghausen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bövinghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 4–1 TuS Erndtebruck

Bövinghausen beat TuS Erndtebruck 4-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.