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TuS Erndtebruck vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
FT
0 – 1
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
11/20/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 13Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck32%
×Draw22%
ASC Dortmund46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
1.54
ASC Dortmund
1.90

ASC Dortmund creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 89 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
54%
TuS Erndtebruck or ASC Dortmund
78%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
68%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
15%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
79%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
45%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
20%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
85%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
56%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
41%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
32%
level
22%
ASC Dortmund scores more
46%

ASC Dortmund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Erndtebruck vs ASC Dortmund

ASC Dortmund beat TuS Erndtebruck 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Pulverwaldstadion in Erndtebrück.