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ASC Dortmund vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
5/21/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ASC Dortmund61%
×Draw19%
TuS Erndtebruck20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASC Dortmund
2.44
TuS Erndtebruck
1.33

ASC Dortmund creates 83% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 35 away

creates per match

ASC Dortmund
2.17
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

ASC Dortmund
1.38
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw
80%
ASC Dortmund or TuS Erndtebruck
81%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
39%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
40%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
91%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
70%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
43%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
74%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
38%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
76%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.44

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more
61%
level
19%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
20%

ASC Dortmund at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASC Dortmund vs TuS Erndtebruck

ASC Dortmund and TuS Erndtebruck drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstadion Aplerbeck in Dortmund.